Critical infrastructure and cyber threats

Abstract

This is a presentation, focused discussion, and preliminary case study. The discussion is intended to generate serious thinking and proactive assessments concerning the salience of threats, risks, probable cyber/physical attack vectors toward potential segments of Iceland’s critical infrastructure. We will follow the Chatham House Rule - anyone who comes to a presentation meeting is free to use information from the discussion but is not allowed to reveal who made any comment. It is designed to increase openness of analytical discussion and exchange of relevant insights.

The case narrative is constructed upon present-day cyber/physical targeting - focused on a notional set of economically and politically significant major - maritime targets. The case discussion will present and assess a review of types of malicious attackers, and potential/probable threat surfaces associated with a specific class of maritime infrastructure.

We will collaborate to define, critically assess, and utilize some police/cyber threat intelligence terms of art; critical infrastructure, cyber/physical systems, threats/risks, attack surfaces, classes of malicious actors, motivations and intent, incident response, structured analytical techniques, pathologies in intelligence analysis and potential uses and misuses of artificial intelligence (AI).

AI is thought to represent a set of emerging threats - in that malicious actors may use the increasingly powerful capabilities of AI, especially generative AI, to create a wide range of critical infrastructure failures and economic/political havoc. Similarly, AI represents police/cyberthreat intelligence professionals’ new opportunities - in that the effective use of AI may help to detect and thwart cyber/physical attacks directed toward Icelandic critical infrastructures. We will review several models and frameworks and discuss some potentially useful US and International – curate models of estimative intelligence, cyber security frameworks, and analytical approaches - thought helpful to proactively consider the potentialities of critical attacks on Icelandic critical infrastructure.

Larry Leibrock

Larry Leibrock, Idaho State University/Idaho National Lab – CyberCore Research Affiliate in Cyber Threat Intelligence – Presently Fulbright/National Science Foundation Distinguished Scholar in Critical Infrastructure and Cyber Security – University of Iceland.

Larry Leibrock, Ph.D. DA, MBA, CISSP is a US Army combat veteran and former US Government Intelligence Officer. He served in air cavalry, special forces, and airborne infantry assignments in the US, Asia, Europe, and the Middle East. As an intelligence officer was selected to join the USG AFPAK HANDS and IRAN CADRE programs. Larry has broad knowledge, skills, and field experience in crime exploitation, digital forensics, and cyber threat intelligence. He has led forensics investigations ranging from exploitation of GPS devices to supercomputer attacks. Larry has provided expert testimony in administrative, civil, and criminal cases in both the US and international settings. Larry has taught forensics tradecraft and cyber-security topics to professionals in the US Government, allied police/military forces, and university students. Larry has previously taught at the University of Texas, Emory University, Center of Disease Control, US Army War College, Monterrey Tech, Harvard University, Helsinki School of Economics and National Intelligence University. In 2017, he was an Oxford University – Prembroke College Fulbright Fellow studying new wars - cyber conflicts. Larry has authored peer-reviewed publications dealing with case development for cyber-security, high threat intelligence and forensics. He presently serves as a member of the Idaho State University College of Science and Engineering faculty and Idaho National Lab as a critical infrastructure/cyber security research affiliate. As a Fulbright/National Science Foundation distinguished scholar, he is teaching two courses in cyberwar and security engineering at the University of Iceland – Autumn 2023.